ΠΕΡΙΓΡΑΦΗ

Risk analysis and project appraisal are important for many reasons. For banks and investment firms, risk management and the calculation of the potential effect of a risk and its degree of exposure, could be vital to their sustainability. 

Risk analysis helps identify potential risks that may affect the deadlines and quality of a project, assesses their probabilities of occurrence, outlines steps to take to avoid those risks and determines how to address them if they arise. Project appraisal teaches financial, economic, stakeholder, and risk analysis and risk management through real and applied case studies, lectures, and group discussions. It helps ensure that projects are feasible, sustainable, and have a positive impact on society. 

This course aims to address the essence of how to assess risk and return in making better capital investment and financing decisions. 

Moreover, the programme teaches the methodology and the actual use of appropriate tools for analysing risk and for appraising return in cost-benefit analysis applications. This is a practical course that aims to assist participants using cost benefit analysis and project finance. 

Finally, the programme will present the basic methodology for cash flow projections and financial modelling in investment appraisal. It will then focus on the application of risk analysis using the Monte Carlo simulation methodology.

ΣΚΟΠΟΣ ΣΕΜΙΝΑΡΙΟΥ

By the end of the programme, participants will be able to:

• Describe how to assess risk and return in capital investment projects.
• Evaluate and measure risk in terms of probabilistic analysis
• Identify pertinent qualitative information relating to a project’s competitiveness
• Clarify the cash flow projections from different perspective and stakeholders in a capital investment project.
• Prepare cash flow projections
• Clarify and compare the risk profiles of various stakeholders in a project
• Identify and measure stakeholder risk aversion attitudes using Risk Aversion Analysis
• Describe how to update the risk management plan
• Develop and construct cash flow projections
• Use growth pattern functions to project trends in these projections consistently within a simulation framework,
• Apply risk analysis using the Monte Carlo simulation approach
• Learn how to use Professional software such as RiskEase which will be employed at the course.
• Explain the appraisal-based returns work in cost-benefit analysis applications
• Develop skills in estimating probability and impact of identified risks
• Develop a risk management plan
• Perform specialised risk analysis using advanced tools and techniques
• Develop a pertinent and viable financing plan for a project
• Participate in the collaboration with stakeholders
• Learn to combine and pertinent quantitative and qualitative data
• Evaluate and disseminate their gained knowledge and skills to their teams at work on how they identified risks’ attributes using qualitative and quantitative tools and techniques
• Justify the importance of documenting and updating risk information by using standard tools and techniques
• Analyse the risk data produced during the project (which project?)
• Construct and quickly and easily develop detailed reports based on their risk analysis and have it exported to Word, PowerPoint, and Excel.

ΣΕ ΠΟΙΟΥΣ ΑΠΕΥΘΥΝΕΤΑΙ

The programme is ideal for:

• Senior Managers in Investment firms
• Financial Advisers
• Credit risk analysts (in banks) and project financiers
• Consultants
• Accountants
• Financial Analysts
• Senior managers and financial managers in companies who undertake investment projects.

ΠΕΡΙΣΣΟΤΕΡΕΣ ΠΛΗΡΟΦΟΡΙΕΣ

Training Outline 

Monte Carlo Simulation Methodology

What is risk in the context of project appraisal:

• Risk assessment techniques
• The theory and practice of Monte Carlo Simulation
• The Risk Analysis process
• Defining Risk Variables and Model Results
• The Correlation problem and ways to contain it

 The Simulation process

• Analysis of Results – Frequency and Cumulative Probability Distributions
• Interpretation of Results and assessment of project risk
• Monte Carlo Simulation using RiskEase©
• Practical learn to apply case using Risk Analysis software.

 Cost Benefit Analysis Methodology and Cash Flow Projections

• Cost Benefit Analysis methodology
• Different Perspectives and Stakeholder Analysis
• Development of cash flows for new Project or existing Business
• Discounting, inflation and residual value decisions
• Project Return – Uses and limitations of different investment criteria
• Credit Risk Assessment and evaluation of debt service capability

 Integrated Financial Model

• Compiling and projecting pertinent cash flows
• Historical perspective of a company or project
• Projecting into the future and understanding of what is possible to happen
• Project financing

 Financial Projections and Modelling Tools

• The Integrated Financial Model
• Projecting Growth Patterns
• Managing complexity within simulation
• Coherent structure driven by key parameter handling

 Marketing Analysis and the Assessment of Project Competitiveness

• A Framework for Assessing Project Competitiveness
• The Project Relevant Market
• Competitor analysis
• Key success factors
• Market Positioning
• The Project’s Competitive Strategy
• Competitive Advantage of Project

 The Risk/Return Profile – The Arrangement of Finance

• Loan Repayment Capability
• The structuring of finance
• Project Risks
• Project Finance and Risk Reduction
• Managing and Sharing Residual Project Risk through Contracting
• Public-Private Partnerships

 Financial Appraisals

• Steps in finalizing a financial appraisal.
• Structuring and arrangement of finance
• Reviewing the risk analysis outcomes
• Identify and measure project risks
• Evaluating project risks
• Advise and propose ways by which the identified risks may be reduced.
• Mitigating and better management of risks
• Stakeholders’ management

 Risk Analysis – Dealing with uncertainty in the projections

• Expected Loss and Expected Gain
• Risk Aversion Analysis (taking risk preferences into consideration)
• Considerations for successful appraisal
• What is really risk in the context of project appraisal
• How can risk be measured and be applied in capital investment and project finance decisions.

 Risk Uncertainty

• Identify and prioritize key risks and uncertainties.
• Pre-emptively manage risk.
• Actively seize upside potential.
• Effectively allocate resources.
• Create competitive advantage by identifying points of control.
• It is proposed that in the context of Monte Carlo simulation risk analysis Expected Value and more specifically Expected Loss should be the measure of risk as it is outlined in the Risk Analysis paper and applied through pertinent probabilistic appraisal using software such as RiskEase. Through this methodology it is also possible to undertake Risk Aversion analysis and consider the capacity of a given project to meet and satisfy particular investor risk preferences.

 Case studies and Practical workshops

Training Style  

The programme is designed to deliver knowledge and enhance participants’ skills via short lectures, case-studies and the use of specialised software. The programme takes a practical hands-on approach in teaching. The methodology for doing risk analysis will be taught through lectures and the use of software. Case-studies will also be provided and be supporting the teaching. Participants will be expected to work on such case-studies in class.

Knowledge Test 

At the completion of the knowledge areas, participants will be assessed via the form of Multiple-Choice Questions which will consist of questions related to the material taught. The aim of the assessment is to examine participants’ overall attention and knowledge of material taught as well as their competencies towards the implementation of practical cases.

CPD Recognition 

This programme may be approved for up to 35 CPD units in Risk. Eligibility criteria and CPD Units are verified directly by your association, regulator or other bodies which you hold membership.